王垣鑫：美联储会议纪要前夕，现货黄金回落调整
关键词：美联储会议纪要、现货黄金
本周现货黄金表现较为强势，金价在上周走短暂刺穿1870美元/盎司一线反弹后，空头似乎失去所有力量。金价在周一大幅反弹40美元，周二进一步延续反弹，将价格推升至2015美元/盎司一线。日内反弹势头有所放缓，金价暂时跌至2000美元/盎司下方。
美联储或采取平均通胀目标制
前美联储主席珍妮特耶伦表示，美联储对货币政策框架的评估可能会在9月结束，美联储或将转向平均通胀目标制与其不管通胀真实情况及过去的演变，始终将通胀目标定在2%，认为美联储会倾向于将通胀率目标保持在平均约2%的水平。
耶伦认为这样的决定将使市场对美联储长期保持低利率抱有信心，并刺激经济活动和推高通胀。在平均通货膨胀目标制下，美联储会认为让通胀率略超过2%水平是件好事。将通胀目标从2％降低到一个较低的数字将是极不明智且非常危险的，并且由于名义利率会随通胀而下降，因此会削弱货币政策的力量。
会议纪要前夕金价徘徊2000大关
上周现货黄金价格虽一度出现较大幅度回调，但从周线级别上看，价格最终收盘价仍位于ma5均线上方，暗示ma5均线仍有支撑效果。本周金价继续受支撑上行，加上macd指标双线仍在金叉过程当中，即使价格出现回落，短时间内仍需留意1960-1970区间的支撑效果。
周内金价反弹至黄金分割线61.8%压力位附近受阻，1990-2000区间成为重要多空分水岭。目前日线级别macd指标虽双线仍在死叉过程当中，但快线有所拐头，一旦价格向上突破或将立刻出现金叉信号。所以日线能否成功突破1990-2000区域，或成为后市方向判断的重要依据。另外，由于晚间将公布美联储会议纪要，若无突发事件，日间金价出现大幅度波动的概率较小，所以欲进行破位追时，建议需谨慎操作。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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