王垣鑫：刺激政策提振，黄金多头一骑绝尘
关键词：美国刺激资金，现货黄金
本周现货黄金多头持续发力，在周一短暂测试1796-1818震荡区间顶部压力后，周二直接向上大幅突破。在站上1840美元/盎司整数关口上方后，金价多头似乎没有停下来的欲望，今日早间再度大幅拉高，最高触及1865美元/盎司附近位置，再度刷新近9年历史高点。
美新一轮刺激资金或难在7月出台
此前，美国财政部曾拨出超过2690亿美元的新冠病毒刺激资金，但似乎依然不够用。因此，美国准备推出新一轮笔刺激资金，市场预计或将在7月下旬通过相关法案。但众议院民主党和共和党领袖对此表示怀疑，认为要等到8月份第一周才能通过。如果国会不能在7月底前通过一项计划，支撑数百万美国人的每周600美元失业金将至少暂时到期。
共和党希望改变政策或减少援助金额，而民主党则希望在失业率超过11%的情况下延长这项援助。众议院议长佩洛西在7月21日与众议院民主党人的电话会议上表示，她希望两党能够解决分歧，并在下周结束前拿出法案。但下周末是7月31日，即使国会能在月底之前起草法案，仍需要对该法案进行投票，时间非常紧迫。
多头疯狂发力需警惕价格回调空间
时间来到周三，金价自周一低位已经上涨近60美元幅度，金价在突破1820美元/盎司一线后，基本没有回踩确认支撑过程。1820-1865上涨过程当中，目前仅有1850、1840、1830三道整数关口支撑参考。
另外，周线均线支撑目前仍在1800整数关口附近，kdj指标三线走高带来回调风险。在此情况低下，价格回踩ma5均线确认支撑的风险较大，目前价位下周周线ma5支撑上移至1820美元/盎司附近，与现价距离较远，价格有回调的风险。周内需留意日线ma5均线支撑位置，目前日线级别kdj指标也是超买状态，价格极度依赖ma5均线支撑，若跌破可视为价格开启周线回踩均线过程的信号。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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