王垣鑫：美国面临经济萧条风险，现货黄金持续三角震荡
关键字：现货黄金，美国经济
昨日现货黄金价格自亚盘开盘后震荡走高，于欧盘尾端时间收回1705美元/盎司一线跌幅，虽美盘开盘前出现一定幅度回落，但价格于前方低位窄幅震荡区间顶部找到支撑，迅速拉升并破高，但1710美元/盎司一线压力效果良好，价格承压回落再度测试低位震荡区间顶部支撑，今日亚盘现货黄金价格主要交投于1700-1705区间内。
三位美联储官员警告经济风险
圣路易斯联储主席布拉德昨日在视频讲话中称，如果防疫封锁持续下去，将看到企业大规模倒闭，并伴随有经济陷入萧条的风险。 明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利警告称，从疫情中走出来的经济将会“逐步且缓慢地复苏”。另外，达拉斯联储主席卡普兰表示，如果失业率继续上升，经济将需要更多的财政刺激措施。
美联储在3月中旬将利率降至接近零，并推出了前所未有的贷款计划，以缓解疫情带来的冲击。即便如此，布拉德仍警告称，本季度经济产出可能下降约40%，并补充说政府让企业暂时停业的命令是不可持续的。
现货黄金震荡或面临突破
近段时间现货黄金价格一直处在日线级别三角形震荡区间内运行，而震荡区间已经从最初的1660-1746，收窄至1680-1720，价格甚至还不能完全触碰区间上下轨，出现此现象通常暗示着价格即将在短时间内大概率出现突破动作，这或将成为后市趋势方向的重要参考依据。
而周线方面此前支撑金价上涨的ma5均线已经到位，但受日线三角形震荡趋势的影响，本周金价并未出现可观幅度的波动，并且价格围绕ma5支撑均线运行，也再次证实了后市日线级别三角形震荡突破方向的突破性，即一旦向上突破，则后市周线ma5均线支撑效果有望继续生效并支撑价格上涨；一旦向下突破，则跌穿周线ma5支撑均线，暗示前段时间涨势或告一段落，后市大几率要进行一波回调。短时间内，稳健建议先放下长期思路，关注日线震荡区间的突破方向。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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