熊傲君:世界经济大衰退,谁能独善其身?
关键词:世界经济衰退,全球金融危机
导语:进入2020年以内,全球经济就面临着巨大的考验,迟迟无法达标的通胀,使得上年美联储就开始进入降息的步伐,特别是美债收益倒挂频繁出现,也在时刻警惕着市场,而随着全球大规模地爆发公共卫生问题,将世界经济衰退的局面大幅度地提前,而此次面临的情况甚至被认为是大萧条以来最严重的衰退。
全球经济重大损失
在疫情的爆发下,全球经济都陷入了巨大的困境,各国工作陷入停顿,自然也会影响到经济的发展,例如美国就业情况,已经连续三周初请创纪录,全球经济可能面临数万亿的亏损,相当于全球GDP的8%左右,其中可能美国影响最大,因美国疫情目前仍再加速增长,且美国是全球经济第一大国,其损害牵连甚广。
全球各国紧急救市
在应对疫情带来的影响后,全国各国采取了不同的渠道来应对救市,其中美国多次紧急降息直至0,而且无限量化宽松,进一步释放市场流动性资金,七国集团央行中,基本上实施或重启了大规模的资产购买。3月七国集团央行资产购买规模接近1.4万亿美元,为2009年4月峰值2700亿美元的近五倍。
全球资产大幅缩水
虽然近期股市市场略有回暖,但整体仍然已经回到低位,可见带来的冲击还是较大,加上此前美元荒导致投资者抛售一切资产,增持美元,所以目前大部分的货币或产品位置都处于较低状态,除了部分避险产品,例如黄金,日元等尚算不俗,本次疫情过后,世界恐怕也面临洗牌,经济体系或也面临转型。
总结:全球经济增长已陷入萎缩境地,这是无法避免的事实,而这种情况很可能甚至会维持至2021年,在疫情好转之后,还要等待各国经济的复苏,这次的事件警惕着未来的世界经济格局的转型需要,而谁能最快地摆脱目前的局面?让我们拭目而待。
本文来源: 大田环球贵金属
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