王垣鑫：金价遭遇无情震荡 行情仍在等待契机
近几周金价一直维持震荡格局，据大田环球贵金属现货黄金盘面报价显示，自11月份开端金价大幅下跌以来，剩余时间至目前金价低点维持在1445.6美元/盎司一线位置，高点被压制于1483.9美元/盎司位置，周线连续四周收出十字星形态k线，实体收线幅度均在6美元以内。
靓丽非农数据打压金价
上周时间内金价多头曾发起反攻，价格最高重新站上1480美元/盎司一线上方，并且连续两天高位震荡调整，但周五晚间公布美国非农数据大幅回暖，就业人口大幅增加26.6万位列两年内就业人口数据前三甲，且失业率从3.6%小幅下滑至3.5%。
数据的改善似乎证实了美联储10月认为目前不需要进一步降息的决定，目前美联储正密切关注美国整体经济情况的变化以制定后续的利率方针，在此情况底下就业市场的大幅走好令市场对美联储继续降息的预期降温继而打压金价，受此影响金价大幅下挫20美元直接收回周内所有反弹幅度。
黄金白银ETF持有量下降
非农夜现货黄金价格大幅下挫后，本周金价有企稳1460美元/盎司一线迹象，但根据最新的持仓数据显示，黄金和白银支持的交易所交易基金上周均录得净流出，其中白银ETF持有量连续第四周下降，是一年来最长连降。
另外本周美联储将公布12月利率决议，虽然市场对于美联储在本次利率决议当中继续降息过程的预期并不强烈，但在利率决议结果公布之前，金价料将维持震荡格局，金价在本该回落调整的时间内选择横盘，而上涨的时机又仍未到来，从历史行情来看，金价要想延续周线级别上涨走势，似乎要等到圣诞节前后甚至待明年第一季度实物金需求旺季提振才有较大机会实现。
因此建议先观察本周美联储利率决议公布后金价是否有打破目前周线震荡区间即提前启动行情的迹象后，再决定是否应调整相应操作思路，否则仍需耐心等待圣诞节前后时间或明年第一季度实物金需求旺季的行情启动契机。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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