王垣鑫:现货黄金回调走势再续
自上周金价大幅回落后,本周金价维持低位震荡走势,据大田环球贵金属现货黄金盘面报价显示,整周金价波动幅度控制在30美元内,最高点1474.4美元/盎司,最低点一度下探1445.6美元/盎司,最终收于1466.1美元/盎司一线,较开盘价位1459.7美元/盎司上涨约6美元。
美元指数反弹走势放缓
于现货黄金走势相对应的的是上周美元指数呈现低位大幅反弹走势,本周反弹趋势有所放缓,经过几天时间的横盘过程后于收盘前出现较大幅度回踩,但需要留意的是美元指数日线级别双底形态已经出现,加之此双底形态出现的位置正好位于周线震荡上行通道下轨支撑位置附近,待美指踩稳日线双底形态颈线支撑后,后市有进一步反弹机会。
风险偏好高企压制金价
尽管美联储主席鲍威尔周三表示暂缓降息,且认为美国经济前景向好,同时美国CPI数据亦表现尚可,但是因国际贸易不确定性回升,全球股市和公债收益率下跌,恐慌指数一度大涨10%助推黄金刷新一周高点,但是总体而言,近期市场风险偏好依旧高企,黄金ETF持仓目前跌破了900吨,为7周最低水平。
周线均线压力成关键
现货黄金就目前而言,周线级别仍是以回调走势为主,但ma5均线压力暂未跟上价格步伐,仍处于1486美元/盎司一线高位,后市需留意其下压速度与其压力效果,从黄金分割线看,整轮上行走势从1266美元/盎司开始到1557美元/盎司,高位回调至分割线50%回撤位也就是1410美元/盎司一线位置在目前来看还有相当一段距离,未来一段时间内或将维持震荡回落走势,建议留意大级别如日线或周线级别均线压力主要考虑偏高空思路,下一轮上行走势或需等待十二月下旬甚至明年第一季度实物金需求旺季才有机会开启。
本文来源: 大田环球贵金属
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