王垣鑫:非农数据公布前夕,金价维持窄幅震荡
虽然昨日早间金价在1822附近位置开盘后延续震荡反弹走势,并且上方1828一线位置的压力效果较为明显,价格并未能成功打开上行空间。而价格在后市的回落过程当中,再度测试1814-1815区间的支撑效果,亦未能成功取得突破,因此截至目前为止整体仍在1814-1828区间内进行宽幅震荡整理。
美国国债收益率帮助利率维稳
旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利周四表示,如果长期债券收益率保持在当前水平附近,那么美联储将不需要再次加息。“自我们 9 月份会面以来,债券市场已大幅收紧约 36 个基点,”戴利在纽约经济俱乐部表示。“这相当于加息。因此,不需要额外收紧。”长期利率继近期上涨后目前处于 2007 年以来的最高水平。过去一个月,10年期国债收益率上涨了半个多百分点,超过4.7%。美联储利率制定委员会无投票权成员戴利今年的态度更加强硬,她指出,如果就业市场和通胀继续放缓,并且过去 90 天收紧的金融状况仍然紧张,那么美联储采取进一步行动的必要性就会减弱。
市场密切关注非农数据公布情况
尽管周五的数据可能会引发新的下滑,但美国股市和债券已经摆脱了本周最严重的暴跌。最新数据显示劳动力市场依然强劲,每周申请失业救济人数维持在历史低点附近,美国股市基准周四收盘走低。标准普尔500指数一直徘徊在关键支撑位上方,如果跌破该支撑位,可能会导致更大幅度的下跌。由于该指标已较7月高点下跌约8%,周五月度非农就业数据过于健康可能会推高收益率并导致股市下跌。
近段时间,金价一直维持在1814-1830的低位震荡区间内运行,尽管MACD指标双线一直维持金叉运行过程,但价格处于震荡过程当中指标给予的指引效果并不理想,而且金价一直未能成功突破1830一线位置的压制,整体表现非常弱势。所以,短时间内建议继续留意1814-1830区间的震荡效果,可以以后市的突破方向为趋势开启的参考信号。
本文来源: 大田环球贵金属
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