王垣鑫：多因素助涨黄金，1500争夺仍未平息
近段时间现货黄金价格一直围绕1500美元/盎司整数关口来回争夺，从大田环球贵金属现货黄金盘面可以看到，虽然本月初金价曾一度下探1459美元/盎司一线位置，但随后价格剧烈反弹重回1500美元/盎司整数关口上方，后市再度下探低点主要集中在1470美元/盎司上方，短时间内虽然日线级别高位震荡回落形态未被破坏，但现阶段走势更加趋于宽幅震荡。
美销售数据不及预期助涨黄金
周三美国方面公布了9月零售销售数据，结果该数据表现远差于预期，数据公布后，现货金价短线跳升7美元。具体数据显示，美国9月零售销售月率实际公布-0.3%预期0.3%前值0.4%；美国9月核心零售销售月率实际公布-0.1%预期0.2%前值0%。其中美国9月核心零售销售月率录得7个月来首次下滑。
随着消费者支出放缓、贸易不确定性仍存、无序脱欧阴云未散，经济学家预计美联储将在10月降息来维持经济扩张，美国零售销售数据意外下降加剧了经济忧虑，从而增强了美国连续第三次降息的理由，受此影响美元指数一举打破维持近几个月时间的日线级别震荡上涨形态，但周线级别上行走势依旧健在，后市不排除重新回归上行走势，需重点留意上方趋势线压力效果。
周线均线压力或成救命稻草
尽管目前金价日线级别方面均线压力频频失效，但在周线级别看来近段时间虽有虚破动作，但整体仍基本处于ma5均线的压制状态底下，后市仍有望承压延续高位回调过程，另外下方ma20均线支撑亦需要关注，该支撑目前已经上移至1460美元/盎司下方位置，若未来金价在宽幅震荡过程当中与ma20均线进一步接触，或将出现短时间大幅反弹过程。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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