王垣鑫：基本面支撑金价强攻千五关口
近期紧张的贸易局势再度燃起市场避险情绪，宽松的央行政策及美债收益率的下降提振金价，本周现货黄金价格大幅度走高，据大田环球贵金属黄金盘面报价显示，8月4日当周金价开于1438.2美元/盎司一线，收于1497美元/盎司附近，期间价格最高一度触及1510美元/盎司一线，为2013年4月以来新高。
ETF持仓创六年半新高
世界黄金协会表示，七月全球黄金ETF规模增长26亿美元，总持仓规模上升52吨至2600吨，为2013年3月份以来的最高水平。在不确定性和全球央行货币政策转向宽松的影响下，五月中旬开始的积极流入的趋势在上个月仍得以延续。以美元计价的黄金价格在七月进一步上涨1.3%，使得全球黄金ETF的资产管理规模增长了3.4%至1,190亿美元。北美地区主导了七月全球黄金ETF的流入，该地区黄金ETF持仓上升43吨。而SPDR Gold Shares 和 iShares Gold Trust的流入贡献了全球净流入的75%。
此外，低成本黄金ETF的规模持续增长，上个月累计上升2.4吨，总规模达到创纪录的56吨，合26亿美元。欧洲地区基金吸引了7.5吨的净流入。值得注意的是，除了4月份，欧洲地区的基金在今年每个月都为净流入，另外对英国脱欧的担忧，货币普遍走软，负利率以及其他个别风险都支持了该地区的黄金投资需求。同样亚洲及其他地区的基金在7月份出现了每个地区约1吨的净流入，在不断上涨的金价的驱使下，中国的投资者有所行动，该地区的黄金ETF持仓规模上升。
周线或助金价再创新高
从大级别上看本轮涨势始于1270美元/盎司一线，周线级别ma5均线持续对金价提供支撑效果，目前均线簇呈多头排列，在此前提下可将ma5视为目前最强支撑均线，建议以跌破周线ma5均线支撑为后市金价开启回调的信号，而周内方面，本周后半段时间虽然以震荡形式过渡，但目前整体仍处于日线ma5均线支撑上方，下周初能否延续上涨势头需留意5日线的支撑有效性，若跌破则金价或将出现周内回调走势，后市往周线级别ma5均线回踩，待后市支撑到位后再有机会延续涨势。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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