黄绍山：黄金再迎新高
关键词：现货黄金
上周五美国方面公布7月份的非农就业人口数据，大田环球根据美国劳工部公布数据显示，美国7月非农就业人口增加16.4万，6月非农就人数修正至22.4万，失业率持稳于3.7%，薪资年率上升至3.2%，整体数据基本符合市场预期，那在数据公布以后，市场预计美联储9月降息概率96.5%，加息概率3.5%；美联储9月会议上降息25基点概率为96.5%，而直接降息50基点概率为0；若9月如期降息25基点，在10月会议上再次降息的概率为59.8%，也就意味着市场依旧看好降息周期的来临。
黄金强势走高
而黄金方面在非农之前一天由于特朗普再度对中国此前3000亿商品再添10%关税，引爆市场的避险情绪，以致在上周四晚间直至凌晨时段黄金从1400整数关口冲高至1448附近高点后回落，但最终由于7月的非农数据整体符合市场预期，以致当时黄金受压在1448高点的位置测试并未有更进一步较为强势的行情出现，直至今天黄金开市后出现跳空低开的情况，但行情迅速的补回缺口，并且迅速上破周五受压的高点位置1448附近，站上1450上方，目前维持在高位进行震荡盘整，整体亚盘行情十分强势，后市可持续关注四小时MA5位置1451.1支撑情况，只要该支撑不被实体下破，黄金仍有继续走高的可能性存在。
英国无协议脱欧有望提振黄金
大田环球据消息报道，目前英国出现无协议脱欧的概率越来越大，今日英国新任首相鲍里斯·约翰逊表示，希望欧盟领导人同意重启任首相特里莎·梅与欧盟达成的脱欧协议谈判，否则他不会与欧盟领导人就英国脱欧展开谈判。而欧盟方到目前为止均对约翰逊该要求表示拒绝，尽管近日英国服务业PIM数据好于预期，但英镑价格仍受困在无协议脱欧，尽管美元出现较为强势的下跌行情，英镑方面对此并未有太大的反应，仍处在低位进行震荡盘整，未来距离10月31日还有不到两个月的时间，届时随着日子的临近，脱欧依然未有利好消息传出，届时英镑将继续维持弱势，而黄金方面也随着脱欧日期的来临也将出现一定的避险情绪来提振黄金。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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