王垣鑫：现货黄金留意周线均线支撑
上周周初金价整体表现为震荡上行走势，在周一周二的小幅度回踩过程后，周三金价回踩1400美元/盎司一线后快速拉起，单天涨幅达24美元/盎司，随后周四周五继续扩大涨幅，最高一度触碰1453美元/盎司下方位置，但日线macd指标仍在死叉过程当中，走向与金价走势相背驰，周五涨势亦没有得到日线级别ma5均线的有效支撑，周五金价在触碰高点后开始快速回落，收回全天涨幅后再度向下并回踩1420美元/盎司一线收盘。
美联储大幅度降息或难实现
美联储主席鲍威尔本周表示，美联储正在密切监控美国经济增长的下行风险，并将采取适当行动维持扩张。上周他曾经表示了同样的担忧，进而强化了对本月晚些时候降息的预期。此外，两位美联储决策要员强调，一旦美国经济出现跌落迹象，就需要迅速采取行动。这增强了对于美联储本月底可能降息多达50个基点的预期。
美联储副主席克拉里达和纽约联储主席威廉姆斯周四下午的的鸽派讲话推动美股上涨，美元随美债收益率下跌，这是美联储官员进入7月30-31日的货币政策会议静默期之前的最后一些评论。而圣路易斯联储主席布拉德周五表示，根据对通胀重新定位的论点以及迄今为止观察经济数据所得出的看法，希望在即将举行的会议上降息25个基点但如果美联储降息，布拉德不赞成结束资产负债表缩减。目前综合各官员态度分析，美联储尚未准备采取更为大胆的行动，因此在7月会议上行降息50个基点的可能性较小。
现货黄金后市关注周线支撑
虽然目前美联储大肆进行降息的可能性仍非常小，但目前暂时不会对金价构成重大利空，现货黄金在向上突破固守多时的1375一线高点后，趋势向多头方面转变较为明显，接下来由于日线方面有所背离或导致短时间内回调局面的出现，但周线方面ma5均线支撑力度仍然表现良好，当金价触碰周线ma5均线支撑附近位置时，可观察其支撑效果，建议金价仍处于周线ma5均线支撑上方是可保持逢低做多思路，跌破ma5支撑后方可看回调。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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