王垣鑫：现货黄金横扫空头警惕周线回调
刚刚过去的一周，现货黄金表现非常乐观，一度刷新2013年9月份以来高点至1411.75美元/盎司，收报1399.14美元/盎司，周线涨幅为4.31%，为2016年4月底以来最大单周涨幅，而且是连续五周上涨，虽然收盘前价格出现小幅回落，但回落幅度已于本周开盘后迅速收回，目前于前高区间附近高位震荡。
6月联邦基金利率维稳
6月20日凌晨美联储公布联邦基金利率，如市场所料目标区间维持在2.25%-2.5%不变。然而，美联储在会后的声明中取消了一直沿用的“耐心”措辞，表态要“采取适当措施来维持经济的扩张”，但令人意外的是出现了自鲍威尔上台后首次持不同意见者，圣路易斯联储主席布拉德反对按兵不动，主张降息25个基点。
另一方面根据公布的最新美联储点阵图显示，17名美联储官员现在认为年底之前降息50个基点是合适的，市场已经反映了美联储7月政策会议降息25个基点以上的预期，这意味着一次性降息50个基点的情况并非不可能发生，美元指数在利率决议后震荡走弱并刷新低点至97.08附近。
现货黄金多头趁机爆发
趁着美元指数回落，美国伊朗局势紧张燃起市场避险情绪，以及美联储年内降息概率大增的机会，现货黄金价格在从1275美元盎司一线大幅上涨至1348美元盎司一线后，再度向上狂扫70美元盎司的涨幅，一举击破近几年主要滞高点1375美元盎司，并站上1400美元盎司整数关口上方。
但需要留意的是目前黄金周线级别ma5支撑尚在1358美元盎司一线，并且kdj指标j线已经上穿100，表示周线级别处于超买状态当中，当市场开始消化近期利多因素的时候，需要警惕金价往周线ma5回落进行回踩，待后市金价于5周线附近踩稳时，后市有望在下一波涨势进一步往1500美元盎司关口冲击。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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