黄绍山：美联储落实降息预期
关键词：美联储降息
北京时间6月20日凌晨两点迎来美联储6月份的利率决议，而本次联邦基金利率目标上限和下限与上一次的利率决议一样维持在2.5-2.25区间不变，这是自从美联储在2018年12月宣布加息后第四次维持在改区间位置观望，而在消息数据公布后美元迎来突发跳水行情，黄金则强势上涨，而当中出现如此之大的波动情况，原因则在于本次美联储所公布的加息点阵图，以及数据公布后美联储声明和鲍威尔的记者会。
美联储鸽声嘹亮
随着数据的公布，美联储的点阵图也随之发布出来，虽然美联储表示今年并不会进行降息操作，但从点阵图的信息透露出在2019年内8名官员认为年内19年预期降息，并且当中7名官员认为年内需降息两次，一共是50个基点，而另外一名支持降息的官员则认为年内降息一次，下降25基点，而剩下官员则认为年内维持原有利率不变，以及有一名预计加息一次，但从整体来看，目前美联储官员明显对未来利率问题存在不少的分歧情况，随后鲍威尔在发布会中也表明本次点阵图发出的降息信号，并且内部尚未讨论过降息规模。
随后市场对于美联储7月份降息25个基点概率从原来61.4%上升至83.7%，而美元方面则迎来重创，黄金在短时间内出现强势上涨，当中必然夹杂着避险的味道在里面，并且短短的两天时间从1344附近位置开始拉涨，最高到达1411.6位置，整体波幅接近有70美元的行情，同时也凸显了黄金多头的强势行情，虽然目前在冲高过后出现比较大的回落幅度，并且走回1400下方，但在回踩下方靠近1380的支撑后黄金是继续有望重新冲击回1400的上方，整体走势可以说十分强劲，随着市场对美联储降息预期增大，黄金方面也会不停因此而走高。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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