林幽沃：特朗普炮轰欧盟控制汇率
关键词：汇率，特朗普，美联储
近期特朗普再度就汇率问题开炮，在此前欧美达成贸易协议后，特朗普对近期美元的升值感到失望，选择向第二大流通货币欧元开炮，指责欧盟控制汇率。同时矛头也指向美联储主席鲍威尔，特朗普认为美联储目前加息的动作是刺激经济复苏道路上的阻碍物，在公开场合不止一次表明不希望美联储进行加息。
市场在特朗普这番言论下作出相对的反应，美元指数应声回落，非美货币以及商品在近期的下跌中获得一线生机。
推动美元的主要原因在于美联储，目前美联储离9月利率决议的举行不到一个月的时间，市场预期美联储在9月利率决议上加息的可能性较大，因美联储在近期两次利率决议上的申明十足鹰派。加之，在美国经济快速复苏的情况，美联储担忧会经济会产生过热的迹象，所以市场预期9月加息概率较大，有可能会进一步将美元汇率推高。
不过，特朗普在公开场合评判美联储加息可能只是一出戏。从目前的状况来看，美联储加息不仅配合特朗普“新税改”政策大幅吸引资金回流至美国，利差吸引国际资本流入，“新税改”吸引实体企业重心回到美国。在这一场戏的背后，新兴市场之一的土耳其已经处于绝对劣势之中，面临着的是本土货币大幅贬值造成进口通胀问题。
总而言之，目前美联储加息的手段只是处于抑制经济过热的问题，而并非真正的影响到实体经济的增长，美国在近两年来经历快速复苏的增长期后，美联储有可能会想法令实体经济进入稳定器，而并非继续快速扩张，避免造成不可挽救的危机。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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