林幽沃：日本货币政策将迎来改变
关键词：收益率，货币政策，债券
在前段时间特朗普公开宣言不喜美联储在经济增长周期中进行加息，令到市场质疑货币政策的独立性是否存在。如今，一直受“安倍经济学”困扰的日银放出消息，在下周的利率决议上有可能讨论小幅去宽松的消息，导致本周初日元跳涨，债市受到了一定的影响。
受日本国债收益率跳涨影响，全球政府债券价格大幅下跌。美国10年期国债收益率上升6个基点，再度接近3%水平线。欧洲债市遭到抛售的迹象，德国与英国10年期国债收益率分别上升4个基点，至0.4%附近和1.27%附近。
在日本首相安倍晋三上任后，日银一直保持开着直升机撒钞票的货币政策。但在日前，日银官员称达到通胀目标依然有较长的时间，认识到过度宽松的货币政策可能并不能达到他们想要的效果。而日银行长一直鉴于首相的方针影响，导致长时间内都无法进行货币的收缩尝试。而在近两年来，欧美国家纷纷进入加息周期，日银也有了缩减购债规模的动作，意图尝试调整自身的货币政策。
日本债券收益率对于日银来说一直都是调控目标，在接近“0”的收益率面前，日本企业借款成本非常之低。如果日银有意提升日本债券收益率的话，无疑会对实体经济造成影响，但结果是好是坏确实无法估计。
从美联储加息收缩的货币政策来看，特朗普选择用超大力度的税改措施来大幅刺激实体经济的复苏，令到美国经济恢复起色。而日本一直处于力度较大的宽松货币政策的环境中，但却一直无法有所起色，日银本次如果能够调整当前货币政策，日本经济有望得到新的变化。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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