王垣鑫：增产噩梦萦绕，原油前景堪忧
原油昨日于67.25美元/桶开盘，收于66.49美元/桶，日内最高上行至67.34美元/桶，最低下探至65.75美元/桶，受沙特和俄罗斯或将增加原油供应的消息影响，原油继上周五大幅滑落后进一步延续回落走势，另外美国方面产量亦见放松迹象，截止至上周美国能源公司新增15口活跃钻机，目前总活跃钻机数目达到859口，在过去的两年里面，美国原油产量已经急速增加逾27%到日产1073万桶，但有消息显示美国钻探商仍在继续寻找新的可开采油田，因此未来的一段时间内美国的原油出产量料将进一步增长。
大田环球贵金属留意到，摩根士丹利首席经济学家Chetan Ahya在周末的一份公告中写道，油价近期的上涨速度，在投资者当中激发了有关是否给全球增长带来下行风险的讨论。另外，上周有消息人士称，为解决潜在的供应短缺问题， OPEC的实际领头羊沙特，以及最大石油生产国俄罗斯已经就减少限产和每日增加供应100万桶进行了磋商，俄罗斯油长诺瓦克上周六表示，产量回到2016年10月的水平，即当前供应协议的基准水平，是减少限产的一个选项。顾问公司JBC Energy称，考虑到下半年供应短缺约82.5万桶/日，逐渐增产约100万桶/日可能很大程度上限制库存下降。
大田环球贵金属分析师王垣鑫认为，自去年6月下旬开始原油保持良好上涨态势，主要得益于opec及俄罗斯的减产行动，但在减产氛围浓厚的情况底下，美国却一直增产犹如漆黑当中的萤火虫一样鲜明和出众，若未来连opec及俄罗斯都跟随步伐进行增产的话，原油近一年时间保持的上行态势恐将改变，目前仅是消息流出，在未来增产落地的时候，料才将是原油正式开始回落的时间。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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