熊傲君：金价反复震荡，关注1320-1325区间反压
2018.03.20黄金策略
昨日回顾：昨日金价没有继续承压下行，而是小幅走低后反弹，隔夜最高接近1320一线附近，在美联储加息之前，金价保持震荡走势。上周金价回落测试1310一线后，昨日早盘有一定延续，并最低跌至1307附近，不过随后欧美盘没有出现续跌，反而再次站稳1310上方，导致后面美盘发力拉升，再加上美元方面小幅走弱，金价也得到了喘息的机会，预料加息前金价仍将维持这个局面。
消息面：数据上昨日几乎没有，本周基本上就是利率决议周，除了美国，还有英国，澳洲，日本的利率决议，这些消息都会对市场影响较大，早间的澳洲联储公布了3月货币政策会议纪要。澳洲联储表示，低利率在降低失业率、提高通胀方面起到了一定作用。澳洲2018年的GDP增速预期将超越潜在增速，而2018年的CPI将升至略高于2%的水平。接下来市场已在静待周四凌晨的美联储利率决议。
今日展望：由于昨日没有出现续跌，所以下行空间还是非常有限，事实表明追空还是要相对谨慎，现在市场皆在等待，容易导致一种利空出尽，金价大幅反弹的状况，因此要密切留意。现阶段金价回到1310上方，那么在加息前预料金价仍旧是震荡居多，我们唯有见机行事，逐个区间看待，早间1315支撑较为强大，昨晚也是走出探底回升，所以目前应先看1315-1320区间，等待破位状况，但是也不要追得较深，预料破位也只会带来5美元左右的空间幅度。
从现货黄金4小时图看：
目前均线组已较为纠结，夹在短期均线组内部，大区间还是先锁定1310-1330区间为上，要么等加息后跟进，要么围绕区间高抛低吸，指标目前也有一定程度的钝化，MACD再次走出金价但较接近0轴附近，未必能带来太多涨幅，操作上建议以高空为主，低多为辅直至美联储加息后，中长线多单可坚定持有等待。
操作建议： 1300-1320长线多单坚定持有，今年目标依旧是1400上方，加息前若有回调依旧可以进场。短线关注1310-1320区间，欧盘强弱做日内节奏，或破位进行顺势跟进。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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