熊傲君：加息之际，市场表现谨慎
2018.03.15黄金策略
昨日回顾：昨日金价波动依旧有限，零售销售数据影响作用也不大，尽管前期有了一小波拉涨，但是并未突破1330，总体只是上移了一个震荡区间，由前期的1315-1325上移至1320-1330区间震荡，目前方向依旧仍未决出，相信目前市场正是在等待下周的美联储利率决议，因此不敢异动，最近数据依旧偏空压制，但是金价反应甚少，反而有筑底的反应，早间金价小幅波动，除非欧盘出现异动，否则恐防晚间波动仍难突破震荡区间，届时操作需较为谨慎。
消息面：昨日有恐怖数据之称的零售销售数据表现不佳，不及预期，但市场反应仍旧不大，虽比上个月有所提升，但仍未达到市场的心理预期。欧洲央行行长德拉基继续释放鸽派措辞，打压了对手货币欧元走软，令美指暂时见底，此后，新任宫首席经济顾问库德洛也首度发布了政见，表示将力挺“强势美元”，令市场情绪为之一振。晚间将迎来初请失业金人数数据，但预计影响有限，初请一直保持良好，市场已无太大期待。
今日展望：由于目前走势仍然非常平淡，区间围绕1320-1330，因此操作也是急不来，只能高抛低吸对待，若过于激进进场反而容易导致无谓的扫单，此阶段有两种做法，一是继续区间做法，二是等待区间破位再顺势跟进，当然相等下周加息后再行入场也是可以的，今日的波动预料仍然不会太大，目前更像是加息前的静局或是加息前的盘底，待利空散尽后，多头才有望继续攀升，这一点我们可以重点留意。
从现货黄金1小时图看：金价仍陷入震荡走势，不过低点是有所攀升的，下方亦形成了有效的上升趋势线，尽管波动不大，但走势亦算是震荡上行走势，现阶段均线组表现仍旧纠结，没有明确方向，下方MACD指标在0轴附近波动，因此短期操作上宜以震荡思路对待，长线操作仍旧可以尝试逢低吸纳。
操作建议： 1300-1320长线多单坚定持有，今年目标依旧是1400上方，加息前若有回调依旧可以进场。短线关注1320-1330区间，欧盘强弱做日内节奏，或破位进行顺势跟进。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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