王垣鑫：多头攻势猛烈，空头能否顺利吃鸡
自12月22号中午12点开始，现货黄金呈现出极为强劲的上涨走势，整段上行走势以4h级别ma5为重要支撑依据，从1266美元/盎司一路上行逾54美元到达1320美元/盎司一线，期间1h级别macd多次顶背离警告无效，被金价强行拉高修复，1h级别4h级别及日线级别kdj指标三线长时间处于高位，但无奈指标空有调整需求却并未发出调整信号造成指标钝化的现象。
就目前情况而言，整体趋势毫无疑问依旧偏多，但今日早间金价在触碰1320美元/盎司一线后大幅下挫9美元，为最近金价最大幅度回落，那么这是否可以视为金价开启回调的信号呢？
从日线上看，由于昨日金价大幅上扬，今日开线后上冲1320美元/盎司距离ma5支撑1305美元/盎司一线距离较远，加上早间的大幅回落，要说后市金价从此开启回调并非没有可能，但个人认为如果从稳健的角度出发，确定金价是否开启回调如果从时间而言起码要等到明天收线才能确认出来。
原因非常简单，早间下挫因日线均线乖离拉回作用，虽暂时滞胀但整体上行走势没被破坏，若今明两天金价无法跌穿日线ma5，后市等待日线ma5支撑上移，金价仍有续涨的可能，另外从12月30号的k线形态上可以看到，长上影线的形态在近期也有出现过，但在此前的技术文章当中也有所提及，长上影线可以衍生两种形态，一种为探高一种为探顶，这两种形态给后市的暗示是完全不一样的，如果今天收出长上影形态的k线，但明日依旧录得涨幅的话，则后市多头无忧；反之若明日金价继续下跌，则后市方可开始看回调，因此要确认回调最快也要周五才能看出来。
所以今明两天仍是以低多思路为主，先关注4h级别ma5、ma10支撑，若金价不能有效跌破则仍可尝试做多。日内短时间快速下挫可尝试在1307附近轻仓接多，止损1304下方，目标1310、1313-1314。
若4h级别金价跌穿ma5、ma10后，ma5往下拐头，激进可尝试反抽ma5进场做空，止损放ma5上方大概3美元位置，下方看1310、1307、1304、1300。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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