王垣鑫：现货黄金即将一飞冲天？
现货黄金自12月3号在低位拉起，做出头肩底形态后一直保持良好的上行走势，就连12月美联储议息会议公布出加息结果后，金价也是呈现出向上的走势，难道传说中第一季度的涨势就要从此开始了吗？在此个人认为可能为时尚早，对于这一轮从1236到1265的涨势，无可否认后市目前来讲是乐观的，但这里对黄金一飞冲天打上问号是对于起涨时间的疑问。
首先第一个观点在上一周已经提及过了，由于前段时间金价下跌速度过快，周线ma5很明显是没有能够跟上节奏，金价距离均线过远调整需求强烈，但碍于美联储加息的影响并没有急于要大家去抄底，但可惜的是由于金价与均线乖离过大，纵使是加息公布出来之后，金价也并没有能够往下再杀一段而是直接往上反弹，直接从1339上窜到1255一线，加上后面的涨幅其实在周线里面都可以看作是金价反抽ma5的动作，周线这一段走得是震荡下行行情，反抽动作完成之后，意味着后市又有了回落或者是回踩的可能。
为什么是回踩呢？因为下方头肩底出来之后金价连连上破压力，底部基本是确定的了，剩下来就是4h级别里面的需求，macd指标双线从1236一线的时候开始金叉到现在仍在金叉过程当中，周期已经明显超过了20，这一种情况不是追高的信号，而是暗示我们需要耐心等待金价做出回调之后方可追多，所以金价还差了4h的一脚回踩。
另外日线的kdj指标快线已经走到了100轴外面，这也是一个迫切的调整需求，所以现在的综合情况就是，周线反抽完毕允许回落，4h及日线出现迫切的回调需求，金价若想在现阶段就一飞冲天可能为时还尚早，需要等4h的macd和kdj调下来和日线kdj的快线调下来之后，再是稳健的做多时机，还是就是从时间来看，实物金需求旺季是在明年的第一季度，现在时处十二月下旬虽时间相近但没到就是没到，接下来的两周是比较看好金价做出调整的时间，需要留意金价不一定要大幅回落做调整，现在有调整需求的是指标不是金价，这点一定要搞清楚，所以如果金价以横盘形式运行，但指标成功回落的话，可尝试在横盘低点介入中线多单；若金价以回落形式做调整的话，下方关注1250，1245这两个位置。
日内激进可尝试现价1264附近做空，止损1266，目标1261-1260，1256.
稳健在1268附近空，止损1272上方，目标1264，1260，1256.
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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