QE减债程度较小 公债殖利率一年首度连5跌
关键字：QE、公债殖利率
受通膨率偏低有望让联储会(FED)在减码量化宽松货币政策(QE)时拥有更多转圜空间的影响，美国10年公债殖利率17日连续第5个交易日走软，连跌天数创近1年新高。
彭博社报导，根据Bloomberg Bond Trader报价，纽约债市9月17日尾盘时，10年期公债殖利率下跌2个基点至2.85%，为连续第5个交易日走软，连跌天数创2012年9月26日以来新高。债券价格与殖利率呈现反向走势。
美国劳工部9月17日公布，经季节调整后，2013年8月份消费者物价指数(CPI)仅月增0.1%，为连续第4个月上扬；除食品与能源的核心CPI同样也仅月增0.1%，增幅较此前连续三个月的0.2%下滑。根据彭博社的调查，经济学家原先预期8月份CPI与核心CPI均将月增02%。
彭博社报导，Daiwa Capital Markets America Inc.固定收益部门主管Ray Remy表示，通膨目前仍远低于FED设定的目标，这显示QE减码程度有机会较小，但并未完全排除减码机率。United Nations Federal Credit Union投资长Christopher Sullivan则表示，FED的减码幅度很有机会符合市场多数人预期，而殖利率曲线也有可能变得较为陡峭，投资人则会在未来几天逢高出场。
投资人持有的空方部位(即预期债券价格下跌)在上周达到极致。华尔街日报17日报导，根据RBC Capital Markets统计，截至上周二(9月10日)为止，投机客对美国公债期货的净空头部位上升至688,000口，创2005年以来新高。不过，过去数天以来投资人开始回补空头部位，尤其是在美国前财长桑默斯(Lawrence Summers)退出FED主席角逐战之后。
美国政府公布，7月份由外国人持有的公债下滑0.2%至5.6兆美元，为2001年以来首度出现连续4个月下滑的现象。外国人持有美国公债的金额自从在3月触顶(5.72兆美元)后，迄今已下滑了2.3%。其中，美国最大债权人中国大陆持有的公债总额则上升0.1%至1.277兆美元，而第二大债权人日本的总额则上升4.8%至历史新高1.135兆美元、为四个月以来首度上扬。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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