美元觸底反彈,金價疲態初顯
周四(5月27日)亞洲時段,現貨黃金小幅下挫,交投于1894附近。周三(5月26日)金價衝高回落,收跌0.14%,主要因為美元及美債收益率錄得上漲,另外,逆回購規模不斷攀升,美聯儲官員誇爾斯對討論縮減購債也持開放態度,這些因素共同拖累金價從四個半月高位回落。
歐洲央行官員稱放慢購債沒有任何道理
歐洲中央銀行執委會委員Fabio Panetta說,如果存在持續的通脹壓力迹象,將使官員們減少緊急債券購買量,但他沒有看到這種迹象。
Panetta在周三發布的《日本經濟新聞》采訪中說,有通脹壓力持續增加,反映出基礎通脹率的上升趨勢,並使通脹和通脹預期與我們的目標一致,才有理由減少購買量。
他說,但這不是我們在3月份的預期,從那時起,我還沒有看到融資條件或經濟前景的變化,足以使通脹路徑改變向上。
Panetta也提及歐元最近的上漲,他說,我們也看到彙率持續且令人難以忽視地升值,這不足為奇,如果持續下去,這將削弱通脹壓力。
市場預計歐洲央行貨幣緊縮的步伐將慢于美聯儲,歐洲央行維持寬松政策也有利于金價上漲。
美元及美債收益率上漲
金價周三跌破每盎司1900美元的關鍵水平,因美元和美國公債收益率反彈打擊黃金吸引力,不過對美聯儲持續鴿派立場的預期令跌幅受限。
OANDA高級市場分析師Edward Moya表示,美國收益率上升和美元走強給了一些人出脫黃金的借口。但我們仍將看到金價繼續上漲,1950美元這一水平似乎是一個非常短期的目標。
指標美國10年期國債收益率走高1.09%,增加了持有不孽息黃金的機會成本,美元指數從低位反彈0.43%,使黃金對其他貨幣的持有者來說變得昂貴。
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(美元指數日線圖)
大田環球分析師認為,黃金價格近期的漲勢或許難以持續。他說:“我們認為,未來幾個月通貨膨脹率將趨平,美聯儲官員的鴿派論調將減弱,並且會希望提高名義利率;我們預計黃金在未來幾個月內將走低。”
市場現在關注將于本周晚些時候出爐的重要美國經濟數據,包括國內生産總值(GDP)、初請失業金人數和消費者支出。
本文來源: 大田環球貴金屬
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