金价进入震荡，多空因素纠结
关键词：多空因素纠结
1月13日，现货黄金维持窄幅震荡的走势，而美债收益率的回落则让美元多头处于防守，美联储官员申明货币政策会保持宽松，反而支撑了黄金。经济数据表明美国消费者物价上涨，市场认为拜登政府的财政刺激措施会推动通胀。
由于劳动力市场疲软和需求低迷遏制了通胀压力，美国消费物价的一个关键指标在12月降温；美国劳工部周三公布的数据显示，12月份不含食品和能源的核心消费者价格指数环比增长0.1%，低于11月0.2%的增幅。与去年同期相比，核心CPI上升1.6%。该报告显示，通货膨胀率仍远低于美联储的目标，并且反映出在大流行病加重之际，经济仍难以重拾动力。至于美联储，决策者们已经暗示计划在相当长的一段时间内将利率维持在接近零的水平。即使价格压力加剧，美联储的新通胀目标也允许通胀一段时间内适度超过2%（以美国商务部的个人消费支出价格指数衡量）。
一位知情人士透露，即将上任的美国参议院多数党领袖查克·舒默敦促当选总统乔·拜登在他的首轮抗疫纾困计划中提出规模超过1.3万亿美元的方案。
民主党在参议院决选中大获全胜，人们对当选总统拜登推动数万亿美元经济刺激计划的预期升温，引发了债券市场的抛售。同时，风险偏好情绪抑制了黄金的上行空间，投资者对全球经济强劲复苏以及2021年美国出台更多财政刺激措施的希望有力支撑着风险偏好情绪。新冠疫苗的推出也有助于缓解对病例激增的担忧，黄金最小阻力路径仍然是下行，任何上探都可能被视为卖出的机会。
短期对黄金市场来说，债券收益率依然是个需要小心的影响因素。美国债务巨大，还会有更多刺激被注入。并且金价的下跌中，黄金ETF并没有太多流出，可能更多是投机抛售。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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