美国大选动荡推升避险需求，黄金迎来大涨
关键词：黄金迎来大涨
11月2日，黄金出现巨大涨幅，日内上涨近16美元，由于受到美国总统大选结果的不确定性，市场避险需求本就热烈，加上全球疫情持续恶化，市场对经济复苏抱有较大担忧，进一步增强了黄金的避险吸引力。
本周将有美国总统大选和美联储政策会议，这些事件将决定美元、贵金属和风险偏好的走向。根据大选预测模型，民主党总统候选人拜登的获胜几率达到90%的创纪录高点，不过在某些州两位候选人的支持率依然非常接近。选举后发生动荡和有争议结果的可能性代表着巨大的风险，在最极端的情况下可能非常利好金价。
分析师表示：“如果结果不明朗，金价将回到每盎司1940美元。但无论哪位候选人获胜，都有持续刺激的潜在因素，各国央行正在扩大资产负债表，利率将在较长一段时间内保持在低位。”
分析师称，市场认为这一次美国大选比之前的都要更重要。对黄金来说，还是要看实际利率。从3月到8月间美国实际利率大幅下降，而后基本上稳定下来，甚至一度有所回升。这也是金价创下历史新高后，出现修正并且近期陷于震荡区域内的原因。凯投宏观预计到年底金价能再次涨回到2000美元/盎司。
本周最大的问题就在于美国大选结果到底能不能干脆地出炉。如果金价上行突破1925水平，那么看向1970美元/盎司。突破2000美元/盎司也并非不可能，但可能性并不高。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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