大选风险众多，市场做好准备，金价连涨
关键词：市场做好准备
11月3日，现货黄金连续上涨，由于投资者规避美国大选动荡带来的风险，选择涌入黄金市场以求避险，同时目前市场押注民主党候选人拜登获胜，导致美元出现走软。
美国总统特朗普和拜登的竞选阵营在大选日前夜都宣称己方在竞争激烈的总统选举中处于取得胜利的有利地位，但也提醒支持者准备好面对胜负难分的局面。出现有争议的选举结果或美元进一步走软的可能性，或为陷入停滞的黄金反弹注入新的活力。
美元指数周二大跌，盘中最深跌幅达0.80%，至93.28，为10月28日以来最低水平。分析师称，明确的选举结果将消除当前三个主要市场担忧之一：新冠疫情、大选不确定性和新财政刺激计划的前景。无论是谁获胜，快速而无争议的选举结果都将对股市有利，而对美元和债券不利。如果拜登当选总统且民主党赢得参议院的控制权（并保持众议院的控制权），这将是利多股市以及利空债券和美元最明朗的前景。
整个市场都在观望中，没人能确定美国大选的走向，什么情况都可能出现。当地时间本周二美国大选正式拉开帷幕，不过结果是否能够快速确定则很难说。在这种巨大的不确定性之下，市场观望情绪浓厚。
只要不出现所谓的“蓝色浪潮”即民主党大胜，那么新一轮美国刺激项目就会出现一些疑问。并且大选结果如果出现争议，那么美元会获得提振，而黄金则会承压。目前美国的一些关键摇摆州民调显示民主党候选人拜登领先。如果拜登获胜，那么意味着出现更大规模的刺激项目，对黄金是相对更为利好的。如果特朗普当选，在民主党很可能拿下参议院多数席位的情况下，关于刺激项目的谈判可能会非常困难，这对黄金是不利的。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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