英鎊有望連續大漲，兩大利好資訊支撐
關鍵字：英鎊有望連續大漲
9月29日，英鎊兌美元有所上漲，由於美元保持疲弱走勢，加上市場對達成脫歐協議的預期有所升溫，加上對負利率的押注有所減弱，英鎊保持上漲態勢。不過感染病例不斷增加以及美國政局的不確定，都會對英鎊構成壓力。
目前落實英國脫歐協議最大的障礙，仍然集中在北愛爾蘭問題上。歐盟委員會主席馮德萊恩指出，歐盟希望達成脫歐後協議，仍相信有可能達成協議。
隨著圍繞英國脫歐貿易談判的氣氛有所改善，一些英鎊匯率對出現了重大技術性波動，這可能意味著這些貨幣對可能進一步上漲，比如英鎊兌澳元有望升至1.93。
如果英國與歐盟達成脫歐協議，英鎊兌美元將在第四季度將飆升至1.35，一直認為最終會達成協議，但它可能會延長到10月中旬的最後期限之後，英國首相詹森發言人詹姆斯·斯萊克表示，預計會談將延續到本周之後，現在會談有可能繼續到歐盟峰會，如果真是這樣的話，人們對在歐盟峰會最後幾個小時達成協議的期望很可能會進一步上升，就像對歐盟峰會的期望一樣，但目前處於“談判的最後階段”之類的言論，無疑為達成協議描繪了一幅更加光明的前景，這種希望很可能會讓英鎊本周進一步上漲。
從漁業權到國家援助的獨立性似乎是談判的邏輯方向，考慮到詹森在與科維德的鬥爭中失去的政治資本，平衡已經轉向更有利於達成協議，不過這項協議的範圍有多大，以及將如何改變雙方的經濟關係，只有在獲得更多細節後才能知道。目前的預測是，如果在第四季度達成脫歐協議，英鎊兌美元將飆升至約1.3500，直到2021年上半年才會再度疲軟，隨著協議的細節和新冠病毒對英國就業市場的影響促使逆轉，預計英國央行將利率下調至零。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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