美元流動性帶來隱患，上漲趨勢接近尾聲
關鍵字：美元流動性帶來隱患
由於疫情對資金的壓力造成了美元的緊缺，是美元指數走高的關鍵因素，而美聯儲採用了貨幣刺激措施以應對流動性危機，但隨著疫情出現緩解，市場上充斥的美元將會產生怎樣的影響呢？分析師認為這可能會逆轉美元一直以來的升值趨勢。
兩年來，美元的緩慢升值削弱了全球經濟。美元升值一方面是因為美國利率相對較高，另一方面是因為美國政府推行保護主義，引發了國際貿易緊張局勢使得現金大量回流國內。
白宮對強勢美元的抵制是口頭的和例行的，經常指責美聯儲將利率維持在過高水準，並抨擊交易夥伴人為壓低本幣匯率以獲取貿易利益。美聯儲則一如既往地堅稱，沒有設定匯率目標，只希望控制通脹和維持就業。
美聯儲實施“零利率+開放式量寬政策”，加上美聯儲美元回購操作向市場注資超1.5萬億美元，目前美聯儲資產負債表規模已超過5.8萬億美元，較3月初增長37%，值得一提的是此前在美聯儲縮表的努力下，美聯儲的資產負債表一度從4.5萬億美元縮小至3.8萬億美元，但是僅僅一個月美聯儲的資產負債表規模就擴大了2萬億美元，市場預期到二季度末料升至7萬億美元。
由於全球受疫情打擊的投資者和企業爭搶美元資金，美元融資壓力短時間可能依然沉重，但一些策略師以及越來越多的投機客認為，美聯儲的干預措施可能最終逆轉美元兩年來的升值趨勢。
美聯儲的資產負債表規模到本季度末可能會增加逾一倍，到今年底可能會擴大為相當於國內生產總值(GDP)的近五分之一，歐洲央行資產負債表的兩倍。如果到年中融資壓力消退，這對於美元的總體影響將會非常負面。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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