美元走勢虎頭蛇尾，上漲動力缺失
關鍵字：美元走勢虎頭蛇尾
美元在今年的整體走勢表現得不如人意，漲幅並不明顯，同時美國政府傾向于美元走軟，而且2020年美國可能進行一場有爭議的總統大選，明年的美元走勢很難確定。分析師指出，未來美元走勢將持續走低。
自年初以來，美元指數穩步攀升態勢，在5月中旬觸及高位98.38。但自那以來，美元指數走勢反轉，出現明顯回檔態勢，並在6月25日最低觸及95.84。隨後，再度開啟強勁的反彈走勢。
在第三季度，強勢美元主宰外匯市場，一度向100大關發起衝擊。美元指數在9月末最高觸及99.47，該指數在10月1日當日更是觸及年內峰值99.68。
分析師預測，2020年第一季美元指數將交投于95.5，明年第三季將降至93.4。高盛策略師認為當全球經濟增長回升、風險偏好改善時，美元便會走軟。不過該行也指出，由於美國經濟較其他發達經濟體仍有一定優勢，相信美元不會遭到大幅拋售。
儘管美聯儲採取了一定程度的降息措施，而且保護主義沒有解決不利的經常帳戶平衡問題，但美元在過去一年裡還是成功反彈。在第四季度的增長步伐似乎有所放緩之後，由於利息敏感需求的改善，美國似乎有望在2020年初恢複增長。這應該會讓美聯儲永遠放棄降息工具，這將對美元形成支撐。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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