就业数据接近理想状态 但经济增速令人担忧
美联储“二号人物”——副主席费希尔(Stanley Fischer)上周五(10月7日)表示，美国就业创造还在与失业率降低“完全一致”的速度推进，数据“相当接近”理想状态。然而，这与整体经济扩张的疲软步伐继续形成鲜明对比。
在美国劳工部上周五公布的9月份非农就业人口增加15.6万人，略逊于市场预期的17.5万，9月份失业率微升至5%，因更好的就业前景吸引了越来越多的美国人进入劳动力市场。
同时，2016年的月均就业人口增幅为17.8万，显示就业市场强劲。但是，过去六年的GDP年增速平均值则只有约2%。
根据CME联邦基金走势追踪显示，数据公布之后，交易员将12月加息概率提升至70.2%，而数据公布之前为63.9%。
费希尔在非农公布的几个小时发表评论称，“失业率接近最低可持续的水平，但经济增长率并不接近我们曾经认为是正常的水平。”
美国银行经济学家Michelle Meyer在接受电话采访时表示，“美国就业增长相当接近预期，并且趋势数字依然指向劳动力市场的稳健扩张。另外，就业数据与美联储12月份加息的预期一致，但没有强到足以推动11月份加息。
费希尔认为，“当前经济的问题在于：减少失业政策的显著成功与极低GDP增速之间的反差。”
此外，费希尔注意到，截至9月份一年里的平均时薪涨幅为2.6%，“更接近3%，而不是2%”。在经济衰退前的两年，平均时薪涨幅均值为3.2%。
许多经济学家认为，美联储正按部就班准备在年底前加息25个基点，最有可能的时间点是12月份。但费希尔当天并没有讨论他对美联储下一步应该何时升息的看法。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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