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英镑跌入“无人区”再创31年新低

英镑兑美元周四(10月6日)震荡下挫,英镑兑美元持续扩大跌幅,再创31年新低1.2656;近期市场对英国“硬脱欧”或加速脱欧的担忧持续升温,令英镑兑美元持续承压;目前看空情绪高企,高盛预计英镑将在未来12个月持续下跌。

英国首相特雷莎·梅(Theresa May)上周日将3月底设定为正式启动“第50条款”(脱欧条款)的最后期限,这暗示英国脱欧进程可能加快,导致英镑跌势明显加快。

隔夜为期四天的英国执政保守党年会在伯明翰闭幕,首相特雷莎·梅透露了更多脱欧细节和思路;外界担忧她在脱欧上是否倾向于为控制移民不惜放弃欧盟单一市场的“硬脱欧”。

高盛指出,认为英国公布脱欧后英镑仍未见底。英国与欧盟的谈判仍未启动,里斯本条约第50条仍未触发;料谈判启动后,企业信心将受到损伤,预期欧洲领导人将在谈判中持强硬态度;在这种情况下,英镑触及预期低位所用的时间料较长,但我们仍预期在未来12个月英镑将下跌。


本文来源: 大田环球贵金属

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