官员担忧美元前景 黄金有望反弹
关键词：美联储官员讲话
市场预期美联储可能提前加息，联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)在9月的会议上上调了未来利率预期，美元指数上行攻势凌厉，刷新逾四年高点，如此强劲的表现为近半个世纪以来之最。但美联储官员杜德利周一警告，异常强劲的美元可能会对美国出口企业构成打压，并不利于美国通胀回升。而当前黄金空头头寸处于6月以来最高水平；最大黄金消费国印度和中国的实物需求随着节日和婚礼季的来临有望上升。
美元上行动能衰弱，金价下跌后刺激逢低买盘，空头头寸高企可能引发空头回补，实物需求可能改善。这些因素结合在一起，黄金反弹或在酝酿中。
纽约联储主席杜德利周一警告称，美元上涨将令美联储(FED)的工作复杂化，有可能损及美国经济表现，推低通胀。杜德利声称，尽管美元汇率并不是美联储的政策目标之一，但央行经济预测应要考虑这个因素。他表示,美元汇率大幅走强可能有碍美联储刺激增长、促进通胀的努力。
他说道：“如果美元升值很多，将对经济增长构成影响。”这是美联储官员非常罕见地直接对美元汇率置评。美联储官员通常会对美元汇率避而不谈，这是雅各布(Jacob J. Lew)领导的美国财政部的事。
杜德利强调，美联储只是担心汇率对其实现物价稳定与充分就业目标的影响程度。他称，显然，随着美元汇率变化，会影响一个既定货币政策达到目标的效果。上周发布的季度预测显示，随着经济增长加速、物价涨幅接近美联储2%的通胀率目标，多数美联储官员预计明年某个时候将加息。
而因为联储官员的讲话，市场人士又开始对于美联储的加息预期是否会提前执行有所迟疑，黄金则有望从中得到反弹的机会。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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