法兴银行：黄金价格与中国政策高度关联
关键字：黄金价格
法兴银行近日发布报告称，黄金价格与中国政策相关的经济不确定性具有较高的关联度。因为中国是国际市场上最大的黄金买家，中国经济的一举一动都可能影响金价的变化。
法兴银行使用了来自policyuncertainty.com的中国政策相关的经济不确定性指数来对比金价走势。该指数的具体统计方法较复杂，主要是根据香港最大英文媒体《南华早报》中描述中国政策与经济类文章数量的变化来制定。
法兴银行发现该指数与黄金价格之间存在较高关联度，2010年以后，两者同升同降的情形增加，进入2013年后，两者走势变得更加一致。模型显示，如果“不确定性指数”再升高20%，回到2011年8月时水平，则金价可能较目前水平上涨3%，约40美元/盎司。若中国经济“硬着陆”，将显著拉升黄金价格。
我们无法预测中国政府及央行未来的动作，尤其时值中国新一轮改革浪潮来临之际，但我们从中可以发现，来自中国经济的不确定性或许是最近两个月黄金这一传统“避险天堂”价格上涨的重要原因。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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