耶伦挺QE 黄金ETF外流 金价获支撑
关键字：耶伦、黄金ETF、金价
根据CNBC对黄金分析师与交易员最新调研表明黄金价格将在本周得到支撑，其原因有两点：一是准美联储主席耶伦近期对货币刺激政策表现出支持态度；二是黄金ETF流出量呈现趋缓势头最新的黄金市场信心调查显示，50%受调查者本周看多黄金，20%看跌，30%看平。
调查同时表明在实物黄金需求方面，由于印度将黄金进口关税提高至10%。这使得印度正常进口的黄金数量锐减，世界黄金协会(WGC)的三季度报告中提到，净进口量下跌62%至85吨。缺乏实物市场支持黄金价格可能走低的主要原因之一。
Intelligent Investor的分析师Gaurav Sodhi表示：耶伦确认了刺激政策将持续，这与我们预测的相符，目前来看黄金价格还未升至与这一预期相符的水平，所以应看多黄金。美国持续的货币刺激政策将使美元走弱，这利好于黄金价格。
现货黄金价格美市周一下跌逾1%，回吐前三日大半涨幅，今日最低报1269.1美元/盎司。今年黄金价格已经跌逾20%。
Barratt s Bulletin的CEO Jonathan Barratt表示，黄金跌势在1265~1270一线受到支撑，我们在1284附近建立多仓，止损位于1260下方。我们感到耶伦经济学将削弱美元，所以这笔交易风险是较低的，我们预期下周黄金将回到1300上方。
黄金ETF第三季度的流出量为350万盎司，远低于第二季度的1370万盎司。瑞银集团称：“下半年黄金ETF平仓情况减慢显示大部分投资的调整已经完成，而且许多希望离场的投资者已经退出。目前的黄金ETF持仓量跌回2010年的水平，推测那些离场的投资者大概是在1,200美元左右的价位入市，所以丰厚的回报让他们能够高枕无忧。但这并不代表市场上不会继续出现庞大的黄金赎回情况。相反，黄金无可避免将再次遭到抛售，例如美联储的货币政策态度变得鹰派。虽然现在资金正从避险资产流向股市等风险资产，导致黄金ETF投资受压，但下半年的黄金ETF流出情况不会像今年初般严重，而是会继续放缓。”
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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