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高盛:金价将大跌至1000美元

关键字:金价大跌

目前,国际金价正如神曲“忐忑”的抑扬顿挫,两大因素导致金价上冲乏力,一是美联储缩减购债规模的计划正面临“最后的变数”,而叙利亚问题,也给黄金带来了很多不确定因素。

9月13日现货金价继前一日继续下跌,高盛(Goldman Sachs)认为在金价甚至可跌至1000美元/盎司下方。

高盛商品研究主管Jeffrey Currie接受采访称,尽管债务上限提高的讨论和叙利亚局势都在支撑金价,但高盛预计金价会一直下跌到明年。Currie称高盛2014年金价目标位1050美元/盎司。

Currie说:我们认同金价1200美元的中周期,相信至少短期内是会往下冲的,因此我们的目标是在1050美元/盎司。而1000美元/盎司以下也是非常可能的。

瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)在5月就认为金价低于1000美元/盎司的可能性在增加,其商品研究主管Ric Deverell称通胀风险保持平静的状态下,黄金市场将大受打击。

Currie说:黄金的关键在于美国经济数据是否在变好。此外,疲软的新兴市初币,尤其是南非兰特,会使黄金生产美元价格降低。

Currie曾在今年4月10日推荐出售黄金,而此后金价就迎来了高达13%的大幅下跌。

 

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