因供给缺口增大 钯金价格看好
关键字：供给与需求、钯金价格
据报道，钯金价格的长期表现被投资者看好，主要因为需求增加及供给受限。全球有七成的钯金是用于生产汽车的触媒转化器，今年以来价格下跌约2%，反观金价与银价分别下跌了21%和27%。钯金的投资需求正在增加，全球钯金ETF（交易所交易基金）的持有量目前来到约220万盎司，高于年初的190万盎司，虽然比7月份所创下的230万盎司有所滑落。
汇丰银行（HSBC）最新报告维持今年的钯金均价预估于每盎司750美元不变，2014年的均价预估下调25美元至800美元，该行报告称，钯金市场的供给短缺主要因为俄罗斯的钯金库存销售持续减少，而矿产产量也持续下滑的影响，此将令钯金价格在长期获得支撑。纽约商品期货交易所（COMEX）钯金期货13日收盘为每盎司699.1美元。
俄罗斯与南非合计占全球钯金供应量的约80%，占全球钯金产量35%的南非近年频频遭遇劳工问题故使得供应总量逐渐减少，俄罗斯过往可以向总量约800万盎司的全球钯金市场供应100万盎司的钯金，但去年俄罗斯钯金库存的销售降至25万盎司，今年预期将会更低。
瑞银（UBS）分析师Joni Teves指出，钯金在四种贵金属商品当中拥有最佳的基本面，受到美国及新兴市场的汽车需求前景的带动，钯金需求也将增加。2012年钯金市场供给短缺为107万盎司，今年缺口更有可能进一步增大。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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