美联储减债若未如预期 金价将上涨
关键字： 金价上涨
美林美银(BofA Merrill Lynch)全球市场调查部门周二(9月10日)发布报告称，如果美联储没有如市场预期的那样削减购债规模的话，预计黄金价格将出现上涨。
“市场如此关注9月，我认为美联储将不得不至少在名义上缩减政策。美联储可能有小的动作，象征意义大于实质意义，” Regions Financial首席分析师Richard Moody表示。
该行称，目前市场普遍预期美联储每月将缩减购债规模100-150亿美元，而这部分观点目前已被计入黄金价格。可能会将每个月850亿美元资产购买计划缩减100亿美元至750亿美元。这也许符合了目前市场预期美联储9月缩减购债规模的可行性。
调查显示，美联储总支出达1.3万亿美元的第三轮量化宽松政策将在明年底前结束。但货币政策将维持宽松，大部分分析师预计，美联储要等到2015年才会上调指标利率。
该行表示，按目前形势看来黄金价格的涨势比较有限，这部分是因为未来一季度实际利率将持续走高。
如果美联储的表现过于鸽派——比方说购债规模削减少于市场预期，或者干脆彻底推迟缩减计划，那么短期内黄金价格将出现上涨。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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