美联储缩减购债 金价将跌至1200低位
关键字：美联储缩减购债、金价下跌
彭博社9月11日报导，高盛集团（Goldman Sachs Group Inc.）最新报告指出，美国联准会预计将会在本月17-18日的会议上宣布缩减购债规模，此将会令金价在明年继续下跌。该行维持未来3-6个月的金价目标在每盎司1,300盎司不变，未来12个月的金价目标则为1,175美元。不过，高盛也指出，美国政府的债务上限在10月份的期限前解决以前，金价仍会受到些许的支撑。
高盛此前表示，中期而言，在美国经济改善以及宽松货币政策收紧的预期下，金价将持续下跌，并称央行购买黄金的动作可能不足以阻止金价的跌势。不过，长期而言，金价的下跌终将导致矿商的减产，这会对金价构成支撑，并预期金价长期可以回到1,200美元价位。
根据彭博社统计的数据，全球黄金ETP（交易所交易产品）的持有量在去年12月触顶达2,632.5公吨之后，今年以来的每个月均呈现减少，累计已经减少683.3公吨或超过560亿美元，最新的黄金ETP持有量来到1,948.6公吨。法国兴业银行（Societe Generale）最新报告表示，受到黄金ETP的卖压，以及美国对叙利亚动武的可能性降低的影响，金价在年底可能跌至每盎司1,200美元价位。
美银美林全球研调（BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research）最新报告指出，目前市场预期联准会每月减少购债的规模约在100-150亿美元之间，而如果本月缩减的规模小于预期甚至是推迟，金价可能会受到支撑而上涨。不过，金价的涨势也可能受限，主要因为实质利率上涨的趋势预期在未来几季仍将会持续。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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