2013年中印黄金需求下滑 金价失去支撑
关键字：中国黄金、黄金价
2013年下半年黄金需求恐将下滑，主因中国大陆与印度民众已充实了实体黄金的库存、上半年涌现的抢购热潮届时应已降温，而各国央行的黄金储备增幅也可能会减少。
路透社与彭博社等多家外电11日报导，研究机构Thomson Reuters GFMS在「2013年黄金调查报告(Gold Survey 2013)」中指出，今年下半年的黄金总需求量恐由上半年的2,533公吨缩减至2,309公吨，由中国大陆消费者带动的金饰买气虽在上半年攀升至六年新高，但下半年料将降温。
GFMS指出，印度下半年的需求预料会低于第2季的热络景况，而大陆当地的黄金交易需求虽然较为乐观，但成长率应该也会开始趋缓。该机构预估，倘若联储局(FED)延迟量化宽松货币政策(QE)的减码时间，金价可能会在明年第1季上升至最多1,526美元，而明年一整年的平均价格则将达1,350美元，较今年的1,446美元下滑7%；金价的支撑应该在1,200-1,250美元。
GFMS指出，今年上半年全球金饰的需求较去年同期跳增23%至1,137公吨，其中大陆的需求更狂升41%至创纪录的345公吨。展望下半年，GFMS预期金饰的总需求量将下滑至1,000公吨。此外，上半年金条的销售量虽年增52%至725公吨，但下半年却可能下滑至441公吨。
大田環球分析师预估下半年大陆对实体黄金的需求应该会趋缓，主因金价从先前的低点反弹，加上民众已在4-8月的抢购热潮中为接下来的送礼季节备好存货。她说，GFMS估计下半年大陆对实体黄金的需求大约是上半年的80%。
GFMS同时指出，各国央行在上半年增持了191公吨的黄金，较去年同期跳增32%。不过，展望下半年，央行增持的黄金储备可能会趋缓至170公吨。
在供给方面，上半年的废金供应量年减了14%至662公吨，下半年则将达736公吨(年减10%)。此外，下半年的金矿产量则会从上半年的1,416公吨(年增3%)上升至1,501公吨(年增0.8%)。
GFMS并估计，上半年全球金矿公司的总避险部位(Hedge Book)减少了26公吨，下半年可能会进一步缩减14公吨。另外，金矿商的平均生产现金成本(cash cost)在上半年年增7%至创纪录的每盎司782美元，而总成本(all-in production cost)则上升至每盎司1,250美元。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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