旺季来临 黄金价可望缓步走扬
关键字：黄金价
埃及政局动荡加剧引发中东供油疑虑，促使油金价格强势反弹，也带动资源基金绩效翻涨，摆脱今(2013)年来低迷的局面。展望后市，投信业者指出，黄金需求传统旺季来临，预料年底前金价有机会挑战1,400美元，而油价在下跌空间有限的情况下，也将有利于能源股的表现，建议投资人可逢低布局资源相关基金，以掌握涨升行情。
除油价外，金价近期也大幅反弹，黄金现货价格上周(8/8~8/15)上涨4.03%，收于1366.31美元。第2季黄金价格呈现崩跌走势，除了QE退场议题的冲击外，主要是受到黄金ETF卖压涌现所致，但第3季开始，黄金需求加温，进入第4季，在印度排灯节、中国农历年的购买热潮下，更将黄金销售推向高峰。
分析师进一步指出，近期全球性买盘出现明显加温的迹象，包括中国大妈持续逢低大量抢购黄金、美国财政部所发行的金币在近期销售一空、预期南韩央行在8月将有例行性黄金购买计划，以及第4季中国及印度2大黄金进口国同步进入需求旺季，将进一步推升黄金价格走扬，预期今年底以前黄金价格有机会挑战1,400美元，可望带动其他贵金属上涨。
从基本面来看，美国经济成长力道似乎开始扩散至其他地区，并成功带动欧元区经济复苏，欧盟推行的宽松货币政策所诱发的自发性经济成长也正在发酵。若欧美经济转佳，新兴市场势必随之起舞，未来通膨压力以及美元贬值等因素，都将持续对金价形成利多。
方立宽说，金市传统旺季已正式展开，中国对于黄金需求强劲，加上全球经济复苏所营造的利多题材较为显著，可望推升金价走扬，但因技术面压力，预估第3季可能落在1,300美元~1,400美元之间，呈现缓步上扬格局。
近来商品价格波动大，葛瑞森则建议，投资人如果看好原油、原物料的长线机会，最好不要重押单一原物料，尽量选择同时布局能源、基础金属以及黄金的天然资源基金，让投资组合更具弹性。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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