矿商看低金价 最近数月避险活动增温
关键字：金价
似乎不看好金价将会延续7月份的反弹走势，金矿商开始实施许久以来不曾执行过的策略──为金价可能再次下跌采取避险措施。
英国金融时报(Financial Times)4日报导，虽然全球第三大金矿商AngloGold Ashanti Ltd.、全球最大金矿商加拿大巴瑞克黄金公司(Barrick Gold Corporation)等大型业者尚无动作，但根据数名资深贵金属银行家的说法，中小型金矿公司已开始在最近几个月赶著作空期货来进行避险，而大多数想要避险的业者都来自非洲与亚洲，当中最知名的就是把一半产能都作避险保护的俄罗斯金矿商Petropavlovsk。不过，这些金矿商大多只替未来一年左右的产能采取避险措施，并未像1990年代一样为好几年的产能作空期货来避险。
虽然不太可能对金价造成太大影响，但最近几个月的避险活动的确明显增加。巴克莱金属暨矿业销售部主管Martyn Whitehead表示，过去3-6个月以来全球估计有150-200万盎斯(1公吨约3.5万盎司)的黄金已实施避险动作。Thomson Reuters GFMS数据显示，全球金矿公司总避险部位(Hedge Book)目前仅约100公吨，相当于年度需求的2.5%，远低于1990年代结束之际的75%高峰。
彭博社甫于8月2日报导，俄罗斯第二大银行VTB Bank旗下VTB Capital员物料策略师Andrey Kryuchenkov表示，美国经济正在复甦、股市表现良好，减少持有黄金的理由。他认为，实体黄金的买气恐怕不足以让金价持续弹升。
Standard Bank Group Ltd.发表的报告显示，金价在今(2013)年第2季(4-6月)创下的史上最大单季跌幅(23%)刺激了金饰、金币的需求，然而这些需求随即因金价于7月反弹受到压抑。根据上海黄金交易所的数据，自7月中旬以来中国黄金现货均价仅较伦敦方面高出18美元，溢价幅度低于4月中旬黄金进入熊市之际的33美元。
全球最大黄金进口国印度决定减少人民的购买活动，也使得需求下滑。路透社7月31日报导，印度财政部长Palaniappan Chidambaram表示，印度政府希望今年的黄金进口量能够控制在远低于去年845公吨的水平。印度今年5月的黄金进口量再度创下新高达到162公吨，迫使政府祭出更多限制进口措施以避免经常帐赤字继续扩大。印度2012/13财年经常帐赤字占GDP的比重达到创新高的4.8%。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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