黃金ETF減倉幅度縮小 后市下跌但空間不會太大
阻力位：1321美元
支撐位：1265美元
經歷了上周的連續走跌，國際黃金價格目前處在低位盤整階段﹔但買盤動力不足、成交量明顯下降，基本面、技術面概況仍不利於回暖，后市仍可能進一步下跌。
由於美聯儲會議決定考慮削減購債計劃，國際投行、機構普遍預計：其很可能在2014年中全面停止量化寬鬆貨幣政策，使得市場人士對於美元的追捧更加熱烈，反作用力於黃金市場。該利空信息對於市場的主導影響，將至少持續至2013年年底，在此之后，才可能出現利空出盡、提前消化的概念，金價才可能獲得有利支持。
而從近期盤面來看，投行集體打壓金價不遺余力、勢在必行。前期市場普遍預期“鐵底”在1280美元一線，以投行之固有伎倆，一定不會讓散戶就此如願，肯定還會繼續打壓至跌無可跌。不過，鑒於黃金採掘成本在1100~1200美元一線，價格走跌后，不可能在成本以下位置運行太久，由此推斷，進一步下跌的空間應該比較有限。
國際黃金ETF雖然仍在進一步減倉，但幅度、頻率有所縮減。預計中國ETF黃金入市之后，投資者買后隨即被套的可能性較大，但長線投資獲利空間也較大。
技術面指標也與類似推斷相輔相成，KDJ、MACD暗示仍有下跌動力。建議近期T+D投資者觀望優先，前期做空者可部分獲利了結。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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