国房景气指数再度走低 土地财政难以为继
国家统计局6月9日公布的数据显示,全国房地产开发景气指数进一步下滑至97.26点,比上月回落0.09点。
与去年同期相比,房地产企业到位资金增长速度明显。1-5月份,房地产开发企业到位资金45115亿元,同比增长32.0%,增速比1-4月份回落1.5个百分点。去年1-5月份,房企到位资金增幅仅为5.7%。
此外,A股上市公司一季度财报的数据显示,一二线房地产企业短期资金相对宽裕,其中一线企业资金尤为充裕,同时房企海外融资依然积极,企业仍有扩张动力。受供应不足影响,近期土地成交量连续保持低位,由于房企拿地意愿依然强烈,流标率大幅降低。中原地产预计未来房企拿地意愿仍将积极,新房市场供应回归平衡后,未来房价可望总体保持平稳,涨幅将明显受到抑制。
虽然房地产企业拿地意愿积极,土地出让金收入也在增加,不过,日益增长的土地收入并不一定可以填平地方债务。统计数据显示,1-5月份,房地产开发企业土地购置面积11756万平方米,同比下降13.1%,降幅比1-4月份扩大4.5个百分点;土地成交价款2718亿元,增长3.7%,增速比1-4月份回落6.9个百分点。
国家审计署最新公布的数据显示,2012年底,4个省、17个省会城市承诺以土地出让收入为偿债来源的债务余额7746.97亿元,占这些地区债务余额的54.64%。而上述地区2012年土地出让收入,比2010年减少135.08亿元,降低2.83%,扣除成本性支出和按国家规定提取的各项收入后,可支配土地出让收入减少179.56亿元,降低8.82%。也就是说,这些地区2012年以土地出让收入为偿债来源的债务,需偿还本息2315.73亿元,为当年可支配土地出让收入的1.25倍。
本文来源: 大田环球贵金属
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