美元升至一周高位日元领跌,关注加银利率决议
周二(10月26日)美元上扬0.12%,报93.95,美国10年期国债收益率连续第三天下滑;此前数据显示,美国10月消费者信心意外增强;分析师表示,在一系列央行会议和经济数据公布之前,美元可能会继续持稳,这些会议和数据可能会改变人们对利率、通胀和增长率的看法。
专家料欧洲央行本周按兵不动 或于12月调整政策
大田环球分析师预计欧洲央行将按兵不动,同时维持紧急抗疫购债计划(PEPP)规模在1.85万亿欧元不变。鉴于在9月的会议上已经决定了第四季度的PEPP购买速度,而关于资产购买计划的调整决定预计也要到12月的才会做出,因此本周即将召开的会议不会带来什么火花。会上可能会开始讨论后PEPP政策,但是市场不太可能在细节方面获得太多信息。最后,欧洲央行行长拉加德在新闻发布会上的讲话可能会侧重于推迟目前2023年12月加息10个基点的市场定价。
澳元兑美元近期内可能难以进一步上涨
近期澳美上涨反映了广泛风险情绪反弹、出口强劲以及重新开放带来的提振。市场的鹰派预期可能对澳元有所提振,但鸽派的澳洲联储和美元行情表明,澳元的上行趋势可能是不可持续的。我们预计澳大利亚第四季度的经济复苏将比去年(疫情最初爆发后)更加缓慢。预计澳洲联储在下次会议将保持鸽派立场。
纽元兑美元上行动力减弱
纽元昨日交投于0.7130-0.7177区间,略低于我们预期的0.7130-0.7180区间。进一步的横盘交易将不会令人惊讶,尽管略微坚挺的基调暗示了纽元将涨至更高的区间0.7140-0.7185。我们认为,纽美上行势头开始减弱,如果跌破0.7125(强劲支撑位),则表明纽元从一周多前开始走强的势头已经结束。为了恢复疲软的势头,该货币对必须在这1-2天内移动并保持在0.7180上方,否则跌破0.7125就不足为奇了。
本文来源: 大田环球贵金属
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