美元下滑避险货币走高，两大央行利率决议来袭
周三(10月27日)美元指数盘尾下跌0.1%，至93.86，美债收益率曲线趋平，因30年期国债收益率下降10个基点而2年期国债收益率上涨5基点。在加拿大央行暗示可能比预期更早加息后，美元兑加元最初下跌0.7%，随后跌势放缓，美元兑加元盘尾下跌0.25%。在这一被一些人视为出人意料的鹰派声明公布之前，加元兑美元已触及近两周来最低。
机构预计保持货币政策稳定
机构预计日本央行将维持货币政策稳定，并预计通胀率至少在未来两年仍将低于2%的目标，这让市场对日本央行在收紧政策方面将落后于其他央行的押注得到加强。消息人士称，在最新的季评估中，日本央行将调降2021财年的通胀预期，此前预期为0.6%。分析师预计，日本央行对2022和2023财年的通胀预测不会有重大变化，这将证实物价涨幅将远低于该行的2%目标。市场也在关注日本央行行长黑田东彦是否会就近期日元走软发出警告
美日不太可能突破116.00
大田环球分析师表示，在全球货币政策持续收紧的预期之中，美元兑日元也不太可能突破116.00。展望未来，鉴于目前整个G10集团的货币政策预期相对更为激进，预计美日将进一步走高。根据该行的模型，如果市场将美联储加息周期往前推，可能会将美日推高至116，但进一步上行需要市场形成对最终利率可能更高的看法。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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