美元持稳纽元领涨，美债收益率回升
周一(10月18日)美元指数涨0.03%，至93.96，盘中稍早，随着美债收益率上升，曾达高见94.17。美国9月工厂生产创七个月最大降幅，因全球半导体供应持续短缺打压汽车生产，进一步证明供应限制正在阻碍经济成长。供应干扰加剧了人们对高通胀的担忧，并加剧了人们对美联储将需要采取行动遏制物价上涨的预期。
第四季度日元还有抛售卖压，年底甚至可能跌至118
美国银行的技术分析策略师Paul Ciana在报告中指出，从一个关联加权指数的头肩顶形态来看，日元已出现熊市讯号，它是今年表现最差的G10货币，而第四季兑美元汇率可能还会进一步下滑；今年日元兑美元贬值近10%，而一项衡量日元相对其他货币强弱的指标(BCWIJPY)上周五触及三年半低点。
美国银行认为BCWIJPY从目前水平还有4%至5%的下行空间，看跌至320；Ciana指出，美元兑日元处于上升趋势，但从单日和周线来看都处于超买状态，我们倾向长线做多美元，在114.35-73阻力区附近逢高退出多头仓位，并在跌至112.20/112.40附近回补。
历史显示，美元兑日元自今年8月以来约5.28%的涨势幅度相对仍小，而且可能复制2014年10月的经验，超买后下跌反而可以布局买进，年底新高上看115.51甚至118；交叉货币对有上涨空间，料欧元兑日元有望走高超过今年迄今的高点134.13，下一个阻力位在137.50
预计英国央行将于下月启动加息周期
摩根大通在英国央行行长贝利周日发表讲话后，提前了其对英国央行加息的预期。该行预计英国央行11月将加息15个基点，随后在2月和8月分别加息25个基点。（此前预期为明年2月开始加息15个基点）。经济学家Allan monkss表示，贝利连续第二周发表强硬言论，令市场预期英国央行将采取更激进的货币政策。这种观点存在的一个风险是，英国央行反而将选择在11月发出强烈信号，然后在12月采取行动，可能会一次性加息40个基点(或在12月加息15个基点，然后在明年2月加息25个基点)。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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