美元反弹商品货币走低，澳洲联储决议公布在即
周一(9月6日)美元指数小幅上涨，由于美国适逢劳工节假期休市，市场交投清淡，英镑兑美元从近一个月高点回落，因有越来越多的迹象表明，经济结束防疫封锁重新启动后的增长开始消退；纽元和澳元领跌G-10货币。
在数据显示美国8月非农就业岗位增幅远低于预期后，英镑兑美元在周五走强，但随后的走势无精打采，因为交易员在等待有关英国经济和英国央行未来政策方向的进一步线索。
周二澳洲联储将公布利率决议，澳洲联储官员们将重新考虑是否推迟减少购债的计划，因为德尔塔变异毒株疫情恶化削弱了经济快速反弹的前景。
法国兴业银行前瞻澳洲联储利率决议：预计澳洲联储将在次推迟缩减购债规模
自8月会议以来，新冠疫情进一步恶化，每天新增病例数量激增，死亡率上升。我们再次预期澳洲央行将推迟缩减购债规模，此前它承诺将保持对债券购买利率的灵活方式。我们现在预计澳洲联储将推迟到11月，届时澳洲联储将发布下一个季度的货币政策声明。无论如何，澳大利亚央行总是可以改变紧缩计划的。
荷兰合作银行：因澳洲联储的宽松立场和美元走强，澳元可能下跌
由于澳洲联储维持宽松政策，且美元走强，澳元兑美元可能在未来三个月从目前的0.7437跌至0.70。 荷兰合作银行策略师表示，澳洲联储已经树立了鸽派的形象，因为它预计在2023年底之前不会加息，而且还可能推迟9月份开始放缓资产购买步伐的计划。鉴于澳洲联储上个月的承诺——即如果不断增加的新冠病例破坏经济复苏，澳洲联储将准备采取行动——减少资产购买的计划有可能延迟。
荷兰国际银行前瞻澳洲联储利率决议：料澳洲联储将暂缓缩减购债规模
市场上有传言称，澳大利亚央行可能会暂停缩减购债规模，但我认为不会。我们不能指望澳大利亚央行在每次新冠肺炎疫情爆发时都改变货币政策，而且缩减幅度非常小。如果需要，每周40亿澳元购买的计划可以延长到目前11月的日期之后。收益率曲线控制或现金利率也不应发生变化。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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