金价高位回落，美指反弹但仍受到压制
关键词：美元反弹但仍受到压制
3月10日，现货黄金从高位大幅回落，因为美元指数的大幅反弹，原因是全球主要经济体可能烛台相关政策应对全球公共卫生事件，但全球经济仍受到油价崩跌和新冠肺炎的负面影响，市场质疑美联储的政策的有消息给，可能让美元指数和美债收益率重新走低。
美国总统特朗普表示，白宫将在周二召开新闻发布会，讨论为应对新冠病毒蔓延可能采取的经济措施。美国股指期货走强，美债收益率自历史低位回升，推动美元指数反弹。
欧盟官员周一表示，欧盟领导人将很快举行紧急电话会议，讨论联合应对新冠病毒疫情影响。与此同时，欧盟执委会正在考虑放松国家补贴规定，允许政府增加公共支出。
但分析人士认为，最近市场剧烈动荡，在产油大国沙特和俄罗斯之间爆发价格战之后，经济放缓的担忧加剧。现在就认为美元触底反弹还为时尚早，美元近期风险仍偏下行。
新冠肺炎病情在亚太以外迅速蔓延，导致石油需求下降，但石油生产大国就进一步减产的协议磋商破裂，引爆了这场价格战，油价一度崩跌三分之一。
虽然货币政策官员通常将油价波动视为短暂因素，决策时不受其影响。但沙特的行动肯定将对油价造成更为持久的拖累，突如其来的新变局，促使官员们在今后的决策中将该大宗商品纳入考量。
美联储上周紧急降息50个基点。美联储还将向银行系统注资，暗示全球最大经济体面临潜在的融资压力。但货币政策的有效性备受业内人士质疑。
对美联储来说，油价狂泻意味着拖累整体通胀压力，降息以支撑经济的努力，可能还没发挥效果就减弱了，甚至促使其采取更多行动。
国际货币基金组织(IMF)首席经济学家戈皮纳特(Gita Gopinath)周一表示，政府政策制定者将需要实施“大量”有针对性的财政、货币和金融市场措施，以缓解迅速扩散的新冠病毒疫情对经济的影响。
目前来说货币政策可能并不特别有效，因全球公共卫生事件遏制人们出行和社交，较低的借贷成本不太可能刺激消费，整个市场情绪仍将维持避险主基调，黄金这一类非孳息资产继续受到追捧。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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