GDP数据超出预期，美指升高，金价难跌
关键词：金价难跌
7月26日，美国公布了二季度GDO数据公布，数据超出预期。同时二季度核心PCE物价指数不及预期。美元指数再度刷新两个月高位，二金价短线下挫。但PCE数据不佳增加了美联储加大宽松力度的可能。
整体来看，由于GDP好于预期，短线施压金价下跌5美元，但金价下跌有限，主要因为美国GDP仍然录得去年二季度以来最慢增长，而且美联储密切关注的通胀指标，PEC物价指数不及预期，这增加了美联储下周加大宽松力度的可能。于是这一系列美国数据对金价影响相对较为中性了。对于美元而言，虽然美国GDP显示美国经济前景依然存在风险，但对比其他经济体的疲弱经济，美元依然作为避险品种增加了它的需求，因此美元走高。
虽然本次二季度GDP数据好于预期，但仍然是去年四季度年来最慢增长。经济增长放缓的背景是，美国经济前景面临的风险不断上升，尤其是全球贸易争端以及海外经济增长放缓所带来的风险。这些因素料将促使美联储下周三进行10年来的首次降息。
占美国经济活动逾三分之二的消费者支出加速增长，第一季度增长率放缓至0.9%，为一年来最低。今年年初的消费支出放缓一定程度上归因于持续35天的政府部分关门。失业率处于近50年来最低水平，提振了薪资，也对消费者支出构成支撑。
在美国GDP数据公布后，美国和德国债务之间的收益率差异扩大，推动了美元的上涨。目前两种国债点差也维持在两个月高位。
其他货币方面，欧元维持整理态势，投资者对欧洲央行在周四会议上缺乏政策行动感到失望。在欧洲央行会议之后，欧洲央行行长德拉基表示，欧洲央行准备在9月份的下一次会议上降息，并考虑其他宽松政策。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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