黄金回落不用担心，美联储可能降低带来新热度
关键词：黄金回落
3月26日，黄金市场上涨幅度不大，市场略有平静。美元指数有所回升，但由于全球经济下滑的担忧，市场对未来的行情走向不确定，美联储年底降息概率再度上升。市场可能会涌向黄金市场以求避险。
10年期美债收益率周一跌至2.375%，为2017年12月以来新低。受此影响，全球股市周一下挫，围绕全球经济放缓的担忧打压美国公债收益率，并提振了投资者对避险黄金的需求。
由于经济出现放缓迹象，美联储上周让持续三年的货币政策收紧进程戛然终止，放弃今年继续升息的预测，并称将在9月停止逐步缩减资产负债表的行动。自那以后，三个月期国债和10年期国债收益率差转为负值，为10多年来首现。
波士顿联储主席罗森格伦周二发表讲话称，他预计第一季美国经济增长将会“非常疲弱”，但年内剩余时间可能更加接近2-2.5%的增速。
尽管他承认美联储暂停升息是“负责任的做法”，但他警告投资人不要对美债收益率曲线倒挂过度解读。尽管外界普遍认为这是经济衰退的一个信号。
美国3个月及10年期公债收益率曲线出现2007年首次倒挂，令投资者避险情绪随之急升，传统上这被视为经济衰退的预警，但因美国经济增长仅小幅放缓，且美股累积涨幅不小，因此瑞银不认为这预示美国经济衰退，保持美国利率今、明年预测不变。
美联储最新的声明透露在未来一段时间，容许通胀温和高于目标通胀，反映实际利率很可能已见顶，甚至进入了下降趋势；尽管市场对美国降息的预期升温，但美国降息的门槛仍然很高，保持美国利率今、明年预测不变。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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