美联储加息，黄金多头不变的原因在这里
关键词：黄金多头不变
12月20日，现货黄金摆脱下跌趋势，重新回到行情高位。因为美联储虽然进行了加息，但是收益率曲线曲平，而关于美国经济明年可能大幅度放缓。同时美联储的加息，再度拉大了银行超额准备金利率和基金利率的距离，被视为明紧暗松的做法。
虽然美联储点阵图目前的确暗示明年升息次数为两次，不过市场仍持怀疑态度，预期只会升息一次，反映出市场对全球经济状况的担忧加剧。因美债收益率曲线趋平至10个基点，仅略高于本月稍早所及11年低位。
债券收益率曲线倒挂、也就是较长期债券收益率跌至低于较短天期债券收益率，美债收益率曲线被广泛视为预示未来经济衰退的指标，这些疑虑引发股市等风险资产的一波抛盘，美元重新走弱。
况且联储主席鲍威尔在记者会中暗示，2019年预计的两次升息并非定数。他暗示，经济数据将决定美联储明年最终会怎么做。
分析师表示：“投资者原本做好了最坏的打算——不加息、出现异议、风险评估改变。尽管公告做出微调并降低了经济增长和通胀预期，但调整幅度并没有市场预期的那样大。”
但美联储在结束政策会议后宣布了一项技术性微调，这也是六个月内美联储第二度对不听话的隔拆市场做出反应。银行业储备金日益减少，加上新发行的美国公债涌入市场，都让美联储很难让联邦基金利率锚定于政策区间之内。
如果联邦基金利率继续上升，迫使美联储在2019年再次出手，一些分析师认为联储可能选择较预期更早停止缩表。这可能使更多资产永久留在美联储手里，实际上也就是更偏宽松的立场。
人们担心随着特朗普政府的支出举措和1.5万亿美元减税计划带来的财政刺激逐渐消退，加之全球经济放缓，明年美国经济可能举步维艰，这是黄金能够从美元那里重新接棒避险功能的主要动力。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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